Objectives and Methods. The aim of the present study was to evaluate, by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, whether cognitive vulnerabilities (CV), as measured by three well-known instruments (the Beck Hopelessness Scale, BHS; the Life Orientation Test-Revised, LOT-R; and the Attitudes Toward Self-Revised, ATS-R), independently discriminate between subjects with different severities of depression. Participants were 467 young adults (336 females and 131 males), recruited from the general population. The subjects were also administered the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Results. Four first-order (BHS Optimism/Low Standard; BHS Pessimism; Generalized Self-Criticism; and LOT Optimism) and two higher-order factors (Pessimism/Negative Attitudes Toward Self, Optimism) were extracted using Principal Axis Factoring analysis. Although all first-order and second-order factors were able to discriminate individuals with different depression severities, the Pessimism factor had the best performance in discriminating individuals with moderate to severe depression from those with lower depression severity. Conclusion. In the screening of young adults at risk of depression, clinicians have to pay particular attention to the expression of pessimism about the future. 1. Introduction Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most widespread psychiatric disorder [1–4] and the leading cause of disability as measured by years lived with disability (YLDs) [5–9]. Currently, MDD is estimated to be the fourth leading cause of global disease burden [10, 11], and, by the year 2020, it is projected to reach the second place in the ranking of the major causes of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Today, depression is already the second cause of DALYs in the age category 15–44 years [11]. The estimated 12-month prevalence of MDD was 6.6% in the USA [12] and 3.0% in Italy [13]. Many approaches have been taken in attempts to explain the origins of depression [14]. Whereas some of these theories involved genetics and biological functioning, other approaches focused on the study of personal characteristics of individuals who are believed to be vulnerable to experiencing depressive episodes. A large body of research examining cognitive models of vulnerability for depression hypothesized that the way the individual interprets his/her experiences represents a protective or risk factor for the development of depressive disorders when negative stressful life events occur [15]. Depressed people engage in prolonged and repetitive thinking about the self,
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