After having stalled in the 1990s, fertility in Rwanda resumed its downward trajectory between 2005 and 2010. The total fertility rate declined from 6.1 to 4.6 and modern contraceptive use increased. However, it is unclear which determinants lay behind the previous stall and the recent strong drop in fertility. This paper contributes to an ongoing debate on the impact of social upheavals on fertility decline. We use a decomposition analysis, focusing on the change in characteristics and reproductive behaviour of women and their contributions to levels of fertility during 1992–2000 and 2000–2010. Results show that due to widowhood and separation the proportion of women who were married decreased between 1992 and 2000, but their fertility increased in the same period due to replacement fertility and an unmet need for family planning. After 2000, postponement of marriage and lower infant mortality contributed to lower fertility, but the most important effect is the overall lower fertility due not only to improved family planning provision but perhaps also to the sensitizing campaigns of the Rwandan government. 1. Introduction Rwanda is a recent success story of rapid fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 6.1 children per woman in 2005 to 4.6 in 2010. The use of modern contraception among women living in a union increased from 10 to 45% in the same period. This impressive decline came after a period of stalled fertility levels in the 1990s, like many other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa [1, 2]. Although the stall of fertility was evident, it is not yet clear precisely which determinants lay behind it. The lack of a clear explanation also applies to the recent strong drop in fertility. A detailed analysis of the causes that contributed to changes in fertility in Rwanda, and the extent of their impact, is beyond the scope of this paper. We focus rather on changes in the composition (endowments) of the female population and in their reproductive behaviour (effects) and the contributions of both sources to the level of fertility. We will distinguish two periods in the analysis: the period of limited change in the TFR, using available data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys of 1992 and 2000, and the period of the recent decline, for which we use the RDHS of 2000 and 2010. To present a clear picture of the changes in the effect of selected explanatory variables on fertility, we use a decomposition analysis. This method allows a comparison between two different periods. It also expresses the contributions
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