Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models
Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps. 1. Introduction Climate change affects tree species because trees are sessile, long lived, and comparatively slow in reacting to a changing environment, for example, trees cannot easily colonize new habitats in a strongly fragmented landscape. Because of the slow growth rates of trees to reach maturity, the typical planning horizon in the forestry sector is, for example, for spruce 60 to 80 years in the future. Hence, forestry has to deal with the challenges of a rapidly changing environment in order to avoid breakdown of stands. The same is true for city planners or municipal authorities with regard to tree species. Therefore, forest owners and related professionals need a reliable assessment about shifts of species distribution in order to make management decisions [1]. Even though genetic resources are considered as a key factor of forest ecosystems to adapt to climate change [2], one has to keep in mind that adaptation processes are slow, that niche conservatism is described for some genera [3], and that species will not survive or at least will not have a positive population growth rate if environmental conditions at a site will not meet the physiological requirement of a species. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to gain ecological insights and to predict distributions across landscapes and to
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