Minor offences are often punished with a fine. Up to 2007 the number of fines in the Netherlands was increasing but 2008 saw a decline. At the same time fines were raised significantly. The question is whether the raise in fines caused the decline in the number of fines. To answer this question a database containing administrative fines for speeding on the motorway over the period 2007–2010 is analyzed. Two categories are compared: speeding offences detected by average speed measuring systems (ASMS) and speeding offences detected by police officers. For each category the elasticity of fines is estimated. It turns out that the elasticity of fines detected by an ASMS is small but differs significantly from both 0 and ？1. If fines are raised by 1%, the offence rate, that is, proportion of fines detected by an ASMS, will decline by 0.14%. For fines handed out by police officers we see no such effect: the estimated elasticity of the number of fines is positive and does not significantly differ from zero. The conclusion is that motorists make moderate adjustments in their behavior when fines are raised but only if the risk of being caught is high. 1. Introduction Becker [1] argues that when the risk of apprehension (and punishment) is fixed and assumed 100%, the optimal fine only depends on the marginal harm to society and the cost of enforcement. Social harm associated with speeding offences depends on the number of accidents which may result. It follows that by raising the fines the number of offences can be reduced and thus the harm. The size of this effect is measured by the so-called elasticity of fines. On the other hand, if fines are fixed and the risk of apprehension is subject to control, then the optimal fine depends on the marginal net damage to society, the cost of enforcement, and the risk of apprehension. It follows that by raising the risk of apprehension the number of offences can be reduced. If both the risk of apprehension and the fines are subject to control, then the optimal fine and apprehension rate depend on the offender’s attitude towards risk. Recent developments in the Netherlands with respect to fines provide a unique opportunity to test Becker’s theory. After a long period of no change the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice has raised the fines several times in the past five years. These raises were partly meant to counteract the effects of inflation and partly to induce a reduction in the number of offences. In addition technological developments meant that the risk of getting caught for speeding offences has increased
References
[1]
G. Becker, “Crime and Punishment: an Economic Approach,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, pp. 169–217, 1968.
[2]
Significant, Effecten Verhoging Verkeersboetes. De Gevolgen van de 20% Verhoging en de “Motie VAn Geel”Voor Opbrengsten en Werklast (Effects of Raising Fines. The consequences of a 20% Raise on Proceeds and Work Load), Ministry of Justice, Den Haag, The Netherlands, 2008.
[3]
P. Wilms, I. Blankers, and R. Friperson, “Opbrengsten boetes en transacties uit verkeersovertredingen (Proceeds from fines and out-of-court settlements for traffic offences),” APE Den Haag, 2011.
[4]
S. Briscoe, “Raising the bar: can increased statutory penalties deter drink-drivers?” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 36, no. 5, pp. 919–929, 2004.
[5]
M. P. M. Mathijssen, “Rijden Onder Invloed in Nederland, 1992-1993, Ontwikkeling van Het Alcoholgebruik van Automobilisten in Weekendnachten (Driving Under the Influence, 1992-1993, Developments in Alcohol Use by Motorists in Weekend Nights),” Tech. Rep. R-94-21, SWOV, Leidschendam, The Netherlands, 1994.
[6]
A. C. Wagenaar, M. M. Maldonado-Molina, D. J. Erickson, L. Ma, A. L. Tobler, and K. A. Komro, “General deterrence effects of U.S. statutory DUI fine and jail penalties: long-term follow-up in 32 states,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 982–994, 2007.
[7]
S. Moffat and S. Poynton, “The deterrent effect of higher fines on recidivism: driving offences,” New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 106, Crime and Justice Bulletin, Sydney, Australia, 2007.
[8]
R. Elvik and P. Christensen, “The deterrent effect of increasing fixed penalties for traffic offences: the Norwegian experience,” Journal of Safety Research, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 689–695, 2007.
[9]
T. M？kinen, D. M. Zaidel, G. Andersson, and M. B. Biecheler-Fretel, “Traffic enforcement in Europe: effects, measures, needs and future,” Tech. Rep., ESCAPE, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, 2003.
[10]
H. L. Oei and P. H. Polak, “Effect van automatische waarschuwing en toezicht op snelheid en ongevallen. Resultaten van een evaluatie-onderzoek in vier provincies (Effect of automatic warning and monitoring on speed and accidents. Results from an evaluation in four provinces),” Tech. Rep. R-92-23, SWOV, Leidschendam, 1992.
[11]
C. Goldenbeld and I. van Schagen, “‘Verkeerstoezicht en straffen voor verkeersveiligheid’ (Traffic monitoring and punishments for road safety),” Trema Straftoemetingsbulletin, vol. 31, pp. 34–42, 2008.
[12]
SWOV, De Werking en Effecten van Snelheidscamera's (the Workings and Effects of Speed Camera’s), SWOV, Leidschendam, The Netherlands, 2009.
[13]
M. P. M. Mathijssen, “Drink driving policy and road safety in the Netherlands: a retrospective analysis,” Transportation Research E, vol. 41, no. 5, pp. 395–408, 2005.
[14]
B. Tierolf, A. Mein, L. Drost, and I. De Groot, Effectiviteit van Sancties in Het Verkeer (Effectiveness of Sanctions in Traffic), Verwey-Jonker Instituut, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 2009.
[15]
T. Bj？rnskau and R. Elvik, “Can road traffic law enforcement permanently reduce the number of accidents?” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 507–520, 1992.
[16]
A. M. Polinsky and S. Shavell, “The optimal use of fines and imprisonment,” Journal of Public Economics, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 89–99, 1984.
[17]
A. M. Polinsky and S. Shavell, “A note on optimal fines when wealth varies among individuals,” American Economic Review, vol. 81, pp. 618–621, 1991.
[18]
N. Garoupa, “Optimal law enforcement and imperfect information when wealth varies among individuals,” Economica, vol. 65, no. 260, pp. 479–490, 1998.
[19]
A. Bar-Ilan and B. Sacerdote, “The response to fines and probability of detection in a series of experiments,” Working Paper 8638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass, USA, 2001.
[20]
S. Lawpoolsri, J. Li, and E. R. Braver, “Do speeding tickets reduce the likelihood of receiving subsequent speeding tickets? A longitudinal study of speeding violators in Maryland,” Traffic Injury Prevention, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 26–34, 2007.
[21]
D. E. G. Moolenaar, T. Zuidema, and J. De Boer, “De afname van het aantal boetes en transacties voor verkeersovertredingen nader verklaard (The decrease in the number of fines and out-of-court settlements for traffic offences further explained),” WODC, Den Haag, Cahier 2011-09, 2011.
[22]
S. D. Levitt, “Why do increased arrest rates appear to reduce crime: deterrence, incapacitation, or measurement error?” Economic Inquiry, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 353–372, 1998.
[23]
M. H. Pesaran and R. J. Smith, “A generalized criterion for regression models estimated by the Instrumental variables method,” Econometrica, vol. 62, pp. 705–710, 1994.
