A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania

A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective) in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as “high” and the economic consequences were also rated as “high.” Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated “high.” It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place. 1. Introduction Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease of small ruminants that threatens the national food security of affected countries. The disease has high morbidity and mortality rates and greatly impacts the economies of affected countries, often as a consequence of trade loss due to sanitary embargoes [1]. In the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, the disease was officially reported in northern Tanzania in 2008 [2] and later spread to the south in 2010 [3]. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reported outbreaks of PPR that caused death of almost 120,000 small ruminants, valued at US$5.3 million from 2010 to June 2012 [4]. This did not take into account the socioeconomic and other benefits of goats and sheep to smallholder farmers [5]. In October, 2012, Angola reported an outbreak of PPR in Cabinda Province due to illegal movement of a herd of 55 sheep and goats brought from DRC [6]. Therefore, PPR is a disease of increasing importance in Africa, particularly in areas where small ruminants form an important component of agricultural food production. Livestock production is an important agricultural activity in most of the countries in Southern Africa [7] and goats play an important socioeconomic role in rural areas, especially for women who are among the most vulnerable