Risk Assessment, Partition and Economic Loss Estimation of Rice Production in China

Agricultural risk, especially the risk assessment, partition and economic loss estimation of specific and main crops, maize, wheat and rice, is widely touted in China as a means of improving the effective productivity. The main objective of this article is to perform a detailed analysis of the stability and comparative advantage of rice production in 30 provinces on the basis of relative rice production data from 2000 to 2012 in China. The non-parametric information diffusion model based on entropy theory was used to assess rice production risk. Accordingly, we divided the risk level with hierarchical cluster analysis. Then, we calculated the economic loss of rice production by the scenario analysis. The results show that, firstly, the national disaster risk of rice production is at a lower level. Secondly, there are significant differences in the stability, comparative advantage and risk probability of rice production among the 30 provinces. Thirdly, Shanxi province belongs to the high risk zone, 12 provinces belong to the middle risk zone and 17 provinces to the low risk zone. Finally, there is a proportional rate between the economic loss (yield loss) and disaster area (yield loss rate) of rice production. Therefore, we could obtain some significant policy suggestions.