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中国河口富营养化对营养盐负荷的敏感性分类

, PP. 455-467

Keywords: 河口,富营养化,敏感性,分类

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Abstract:

?沿海区域环境压力日趋加重,基于营养盐负荷响应敏感性对河口进行分类是确定富营养化优先管理对象和级别、进一步实施控制措施的科学基础.选择我国65个代表性河口,利用101个河流入海口断面、260个沿岸点位2007~2012年的系统监测数据及历史资料,基于浮游植物生物量、总氮负荷以及河口物理特征等之间的关系,构建了一个营养盐驱动的浮游植物动力学模型.模型中通过引入河口转化效率参数,量化了各类河口富营养化的生态过滤器效应.利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗算法进行贝叶斯分析,模型能较好地估算叶绿素,且对富营养化关键过程的捕食损失速率、沉降速率、碳与叶绿素比率、初级生产力和河口转化效率等5个参数的模拟结果,在收敛性、拟合度和逻辑性方面都比较合理.进一步分析发现,河口转化效率与冲刷效率基本呈负相关.根据转化效率和冲刷效率,可将河口富营养化敏感性分为3类,转化效率小于1.0gC/gN,冲刷效率大于2.0a-1的河口对富营养化不敏感;转化效率在1.0~3.0gC/gN,冲刷效率在0.7~2.0a-1的河口较敏感;转化效率大于3.0gC/gN的河口对富营养化高度敏感,而冲刷效率低于0.7a-1的各类河口敏感性差异较大.高度和中度敏感性河口占67%,其富营养化风险较大,应作为环境监管和污染防治的重点.

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