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CIECIA:一个新的气候变化集成评估模型及其对全球合作减排方案的评估

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-015-5141-3, PP. 1575-1596

Keywords: 集成评估模型,全球合作减排方案,一般均衡,过程技术进步,帕累托改进

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Abstract:

?针对目前主流的IAM的缺陷,从全球经济一般均衡和技术进步的角度出发,构建了一个新的气候变化经济学集成评估模型:CIECIA.CIECIA的经济内核由一个多国多部门一般均衡模型构成,保障了全球一般均衡,克服了主流模型的不足,并引入了分部门的内生的过程技术进步机制.在模型的基础上,本文提出了全球气候保护合作方案的三个评估原则:有效性、可行性和公平性,并对当前主要的全球碳减排方案进行了模拟和分析.模拟结果显示:本文选择分析的6种方案都能满足到2100年的气候保护目标,因此都是有效的合作减排方案,但各方案在可行性和公平性上差别较大.其中,Stern方案有利于发达国家的发展,对发展中国家不公平;Nordhaus方案则有利于发展中国家发展,但会对发达国家造成一定的影响;人均碳排放趋同和累计人均碳排放趋同方案对中低发展中国家较为有利,但是会对包括中国在内的世界主要经济体的经济发展造成较大的影响;在经济平稳增长方案上改进得到的帕累托改进方案兼顾碳减排过程中的公平性和可行性,实现了所有减排参与国经济利益的帕累托改进,因此最为合理.

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