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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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山西降水与ENSO的相关性研究
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201503006, PP. 420-430
Keywords: 降水,ENSO,SST,SOI,相关分析,山西
Abstract:
基于山西38个测站1958-2013年的逐月降水资料、CPC南方涛动指数、NOAA逐月太平洋海温等资料,应用趋势分析和相关分析等统计方法分析了近56年山西年及四季降水对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明①LaNina年,山西年降水、秋、冬季降水易偏多,春、夏季易偏少;ElNino年,春季降水易偏多,年降水、夏、秋和冬季易减少。LaNina次年,冬季降水易偏多,年降水、春、夏和秋季易偏少;ElNino次年,年降水、春、夏季降水易偏多,秋、冬季易偏少。②山西年降水与上年太平洋海温在Nino3,4区存在小区域的正相关,上年对应海域海温偏高（低）,年降水易偏多（少）,与同期太平洋海温在Nino3区存在负相关,对应海域海温偏高（低）,年降水易偏少（多）;春季降水与前期冬季（同期）太平洋海温在Nino3,4（NinoC）区存在正相关;夏季降水与前期春季（同期）太平洋海温在Nino3区存在负相关;秋季降水与前期夏季（同期）太平洋海温在NinoC（Nino3和NinoC）区存在负相关区;冬季降水与前期秋季（同期）太平洋海温在Nino3,4（NinoC）区存在大面积负相关。③SOI与山西大部分地区的降水趋势指数为显著负相关,中西部、东北部局部地区相关系数达-0.5以上,SOI为正（负）值时,上述地区月降水易偏少（多）;SOI与东北部滞后1个月的降水趋势指数有相关系数达-0.45以上的负相关区域;SOI与滞后2（3）个月的降水趋势指数的相关分析表明,不同区域对SOI变化的响应不同,相关系数分别为-0.38~0.29和-0.43~0.22。
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