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近60a来西秦岭及周边地区降水的分布格局

, PP. 867-879

Keywords: 西秦岭,降水,干湿变化,分布格局

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Abstract:

基于西秦岭及周边地区15个气象站点的降水、气温等月值、年值资料,采用相关统计分析及检验的方法,研究了1951年以来该区域近60a干湿变化的时空特征。结果表明:西秦岭及周边地区1951年以来降水量呈下降趋势,秋季降水量减少趋势最明显,速率为-18.6mm·(10a)-1;而近60a年平均气温呈上升趋势,升温速率为0.28℃·(10a)-1。对比气温和降水要素,西秦岭及周边地区年平均温度每升高1℃,则年降水减少37mm,表明该区近60a由冷湿向暖干转变。同时将气候要素与Ni?o3.4指数进行相关分析,结果显示在厄尔尼诺事件发生当年该区降水少,气温高,容易发生干旱。利用改进的经验正交函数法分析西秦岭及其周边地区15个气象站点的气候要素,发现该区年降水距平百分率的第一模态解释方差为49.0%,整个区域呈同向变化,而年平均温度距平第一模态解释方差为78.8%,在整个区域内亦呈现同向变化。对比两个要素第一模态显示西秦岭近60a东部地区与西部地区相比,呈现降水减少幅度大,气温升高速率小的分布格局。

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