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于SWAT模型的渭河流域干旱时空分布

DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.008, PP. 1156-1166

Keywords: SWAT模型,PDSI,干旱评价,渭河流域

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Abstract:

以渭河流域为例,从流域水文循环的角度出发,在SWAT(SoilandWaterAssessmentTool)分布式水文模型和Palmer干旱指数(PalmerDroughtSeverityIndex)原理的基础上提出了干旱分析模型SWAT-PDSI,对渭河流域干旱的时空演变规律和发生频率进行了分析。研究结果表明①经率定和验证的SWAT模型能够较好地模拟渭河流域的水文变化过程;②利用SWAT-PDSI对典型干旱事件(1995年干旱)的评估结果显示,该模型能较好地反映渭河流域干旱的时空差异和变化规律;③渭河流域、渭河干流和泾河流域均表现为变干的趋势,而北洛河流域表现为变湿的趋势,但均未通过95%的置信水平检验;④渭河流域多数子流域的SWAT-PDSI多年平均值处于-1~1,说明该流域多数地区处于正常状态;⑤渭河流域北部的北洛河流域和泾河流域的上游地区易发生干旱,发生中等以上、严重以上和极端干旱事件的频率最高。

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