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IPCCAR5全球气候模式对1996-2005年中国气温模拟精度评价

DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.003, PP. 1229-1240

Keywords: IPCC,AR5,全球气候模式,气温,精度,日尺度

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Abstract:

本文利用中国660个站点逐日地面温度资料,评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次报告(IPCCAR5)的9个全球气候模式(GlobalClimateModels,GCMs)及多模式集合(Multi-ModelEnsemble,MME)对中国地区气温的模拟精度。结果表明9个IPCCAR5全球气候模式和MME模拟的中国地区1996-2005年日平均气温与气象站点观测值的相关系数都大于0.86,表明相关性较好;气候模式模拟的中国东南部地区1996-2005年日平均气温的模拟精度较高,模拟值的偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差都比较小;而西部地区的模拟效果较差,模拟精度较低。综合考虑模式模拟值与站点观测值的相关系数、偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差发现,MME在中国地区的气温模拟精度优于大部分单个模式。

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