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基于能值分析法的绿色GDP核算研究——以陕西省商洛市为例

DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.09.009, PP. 1523-1533

Keywords: 能值分析,绿色GDP,商洛市,资源,环境

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Abstract:

?论文基于Odum创立的生态经济系统能值理论和方法,对2003—2012年商洛市绿色GDP进行定量核算。核算结果如下:①2003—2012年商洛市传统GDP分别在1.12×109~6.72×109美元之间,绿色GDP分别在9.80×108~3.35×109美元之间,各年度绿色GDP占GDP比重在49.85%~87.50%之间;②自2003年以来,商洛市经济增长对自然资源(包括不可更新环境资源与不可更新资源产品)及环境资源价值消耗的持续增长,造成10a间绿色GDP发生了很大程度的变化,各年度对自然资源价值消耗占GDP的比重处于6.55%~31.77%之间,各年度环境资源价值损耗占GDP的比重处于5.18%~24.39%之间,其中2008、2009年环境资源价值损耗对绿色GDP核算的影响大于自然资源损耗对绿色GDP核算的影响,其余年份均是自然资源的损耗大于环境资源的损耗;③输入资源包括从外部输入的汽油、柴油、化肥、农药等,对绿色GDP核算的影响较小,各年度占GDP比重保持在0.83%~1.30%之间。绿色GDP核算结果表明:近年来商洛市的经济发展存在两个方面的问题,第一是经济增长严重依赖于对资源(包括自然资源和输入资源)的消耗,第二是商洛市经济增长造成了对环境的严重污染。因此商洛市经济发展的模式是不可持续的,如果继续延续这种依赖资源和环境的发展模式,就会使当地经济陷入恶性循环的怪圈。

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