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基于GPS的川青地块周边活断层上大震序列分析

DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0308, PP. 58-66

Keywords: 活动断层,GPS,摩擦本构,强震,断层-地块

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Abstract:

选择川青地块及周边3条主要活动断层――鲜水河断裂带、龙门山断裂带和东昆仑断裂带为研究对象,以构造应力场资料及GPS监测数据作为地表约束参考,结合地质资料及历史地震资料,基于与状态相关的摩擦本构关系,模拟了研究区域内最近的4次强震――昆仑山口地震、汶川地震、玉树地震及芦山地震发生前后断层――地块体系的力学和运动状态。结果表明,应力、应变、位移状态与地震发生存在一定的联系,初步推断研究区域内未来可能发生强震的地段为鲜水河断裂带的甘孜――道孚段、龙门山断裂带的西南段和东北段。

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