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电网技术  2015 

考虑人为因素的设备可靠度评估及定检周期决策

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.09.026, PP. 2546-2552

Keywords: 比例故障模型,设备可靠度评估,人为因素,定检周期决策

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Abstract:

人为因素对设备可靠度评估和定检周期修决策有重要影响,但目前的研究往往忽略了人为因素的影响,为此,提出了一种基于比例故障模型的设备可靠度评估改进方法一方面,不对设备状态转移作任何简化,即认为设备状态转移可能发生在任何时刻,而不仅仅是状态监测点;另一方面,利用广义帕累托分布表征人为因素对设备可靠度评估的影响。在此改进方法基础上,完善了设备定期检修模型,考虑了由人为失误造成的不完美检修情况。算例分析表明人为失误、检修故障比例、检修时间、故障修复时间等因素对设备检修可用率的影响;在定期检修中充分考虑人为因素等情况可以提高设备可用率。

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