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基于样条重构和准蒙特卡洛的随机潮流方法

DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.2015.10.036, PP. 3447-3453

Keywords: 随机潮流,样条重构,改进Nataf变换,相关性,Sobol序列,准蒙特卡洛

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Abstract:

为准确分析大规模风电并网电力系统运行风险,在随机潮流(PLF)分析中需对输入随机变量的概率分布函数(PDFs)进行准确建模。因此,提出了一种基于样条重构和准蒙特卡洛(MonteCarlo)方法的PLF计算方法。该方法可直接根据变量矩信息重构概率分布函数,使用基于样条重构的Nataf变换获得相关的输入变量样本,并采用准蒙特卡洛方法获得系统输出变量的概率特征。对IEEE30节点系统和某大区域电网进行仿真试验验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明所提方法可准确重构变量分布,且具有计算速度快、可灵活处理输入变量间相关性的优点。

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