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树轮宽度记录的长江源1470~2009年4~6月最高气温

DOI: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2015.05.06, PP. 1102-1111

Keywords: 长江源,树轮宽度,最高气温,气候重建

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Abstract:

根据采集自青藏高原东部长江源区内3个采样点的大果圆柏(SabinatibeticaKom.)树轮样本建立了3个标准化年表,并将3个年表合成为一个总年表RC以代表整个长江源。通过与气候要素间相关分析和响应分析发现,总年表对整个长江源区4~6月平均最高气温响应敏感,负相关性显著,相关系数为-0.57。在此基础上重建了长江源地区1470~2009年的4~6月平均最高气温序列,重建方程稳定可靠,方差解释量32.7%,调整自由度后为31.3%。通过低频变换分析发现,重建序列在过去540年来经历了12次较冷时期和11次暖期,与周边其他气温重建序列以及历史记载比较之后,重建序列的可靠性得到了进一步的证实。空间相关分析发现重建序列对于整个青藏高原地区4~6月平均最高气温变化特征都具有很好的代表性,通过多窗谱和小波分析发现重建序列存在显著2.3a、4.3a、25a以及准48a周期。

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