基于“多米诺效应”的自由贸易协定扩张机制研究

摘要 从基准情形、单一外部的自由贸易协定、双外部的自由贸易协定等方面构建理论模型对自由贸易协定扩张机制进行研究和分析，并着重讨论已有外部自由贸易协定对正在进行自由贸易协定谈判双方的影响，其结果发现：市场规模、边际生产成本以及双方间的运输成本是影响自由贸易协定谈判的重要因素。与基准情形相比，当存在单一外部的自由贸易协定即谈判双方中仅有一方已经与其他国家签署了自由贸易协定时，该方与谈判另一方签署自由贸易协定的动力增加，而谈判另一方签署自由贸易协定的动力则下降；在双外部的自由贸易协定即谈判双方均已与其他国家签署了自由贸易协定的情形下，谈判双方达成新自由贸易协定的动力均增加，继而推动自由贸易协定的不断扩张。
Abstract： A theoretical model is constructed from the perspective of baseline conditions, a single external FTA, and a dual external FTA to analyze the expansion mechanism of free trade agreements, and particularly the impact of external free trade agreements on the parties of the ongoing FTA negotiations. The results show that market size, marginal production costs, and transportation costs(freight and customs duties) between the two parties are important factors affecting FTA negotiations. Compared with the baseline scenario, when there is a single external FTA, the party that has signed FTA with others increase its motivation to sign FTA, while the party without external FTA members decreases its incentives to sign FTA. In the case of a dual external FTA, the motivation for negotiating new FTA between the two parties has increased, which leads to the continued expansion of the FTA.