人口结构、经济增长与中国社会福利水平

摘要 对经典的Ramsey(1928)模型进行了扩展，通过构建Hamilton泛函讨论了人口结构、经济增长与社会福利的动态关系。运用中国2005-2016年31个省际面板数据进行了实证分析，结果表明:少儿抚养比、总抚养比与社会福利水平存在负相关关系，老年抚养比与社会福利水平在一定程度上存在正相关关系，经济增长与社会福利水平存在负相关关系。分区域研究的结果显示:东中部地区经济增长会抑制社会福利水平提高，西部地区经济增长会促进社会福利水平提高。
Abstract：The classic Ramsey(1928) model is expanded and and the Hamilton function is built to explore the dynamic relationship among demographic structure， economic growth and social welfare. Then， based on China's provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016， the empirical results show that: the youth dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio are negatively correlated with social welfare level， the elderly dependency ratio is positively associated with social welfare level to some extent， and economic growth is harmful to social welfare level. Furthermore， the regional analysis suggests that economic growth restrains the improvement of social welfare in the east and central regions， while economic growth in the western areas promotes the level of social welfare.