基于证据推理的液化天然气海上运输可靠性评价

基于运输可靠性的内涵，对运输航次的装载、航行和卸载三个阶段可靠性影响因素进行分析，建立液化天然气海上运输可靠性综合评价指标体系.运用层次分析法确定各指标权重，采用证据推理理论对定性及定量指标进行信息融合，实现不同船舶执行航次运输任务的可靠性综合评价.以广东液化天然气项目为例，对该项目运输船舶的航次运输任务完成情况进行综合评价，结果验证了该方法的可行性，可为液化天然气海上运输的计划优化及可靠性管理提供参考.
Based on the connotation of transport reliability, the factors influencing the reliability of three stages, namely loading, navigation and unloading were analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation index system for the reliability of LNG marine transportation was established. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the weights of each index, and the qualitative and quantitative indexes were fused by using evidence reasoning theory to realize the reliability comprehensive evaluation of different ships carrying out voyage transportation tasks. Taking Guangdong LNG project as an example to conduct the comprehensive evaluation for the voyage of LNG marine transportation, and the results verify the feasibility of the method, which can provide reference for plan optimization and reliability management of LNG marine transportation.