基于系统动力学的干散货航运市场影响因素研究

为探索干散货航运市场的运行机制及演变规律，对其影响因素进行深入剖析，定量地引入船东心理、投资导向型订单、航运衍生品市场等因素，构建干散货航运市场系统动力学模型并进行模拟分析.结果显示：世界贸易及“中国因素”是航运需求的主要影响因素；航运供给的主要影响因素包括船舶拆解、投资导向型订单、新造船交付比例.除此之外，FFA交易量与BDI指数波动密切相关；2009年之后，燃油成本已不是BDI指数的影响因素.据此，提出以下建议：市场低迷时，政府可适当增加拆船补贴，刺激老旧船舶更新；船东可协商船厂适当延迟船舶交付以降低供给侧的增速；船东与投资人应减少投机行为，理性投资.
To explore the operation mechanism and evolution rules of the dry bulk shipping market, the factors affecting the dry bulk cargo shipping market were deeply analyzed. The ship owner psychology, investment oriented shipbuilding order, shipping derivatives market were quantitatively introduced to build the dry bulk shipping market system dynamics model, and simulation analysis was carried out. Results show that world trade and China factor constitute two main influence factors of shipping demand, and the main influence factors of shipping supply were ship demolition, investment oriented shipbuilding order and shipbuilding delivery ratio. In addition, FFA trade volume was closely related to the BDI index fluctuation, and the fuel cost has no been an influence factor of BDI after 2009. Thus, the following suggestions have been proposed: during the sluggish market, the government can appropriately increase ship demolition subsidies to encourage ship renewal, the ship owners can negotiate with the shipyard to appropriately delay the ship delivery to reduce the growth rate of supply side, and ship owners and investors should reduce speculation behavior and invest rationally.