中国OFDI的制造业产业“空心化”效应研究
A Study on the Manufacturing Industrial Howllowing Out of China’s OFDI

基于我国现阶段OFDI“顺梯度”“逆梯度”二元结构投资的环境、背景下，对我国双向梯度OFDI的制造业产业“空心化”效应机制进行分析，进而通过修改钱纳里“标准结构”模型，利用2003-2014年中国东部地区11个省市的省际面板数据进行了实证检验，结果表明：（1）OFDI的产业“空心化”效应确实存在；（2）工业生产成本的攀升、资产价格的波动、人力成本的上涨都不同程度地加剧了OFDI的制造业产业“空心化”效应；（3）外商直接投资能够在一定程度上正向调整OFDI的制造业产业“空心化”效应；（4）OFDI并不是我国制造业产业“空心化”的主要影响因素，工业生产成本的攀升依然是我国制造业发展的主要障碍，其次是资产价格变动、OFDI和人力成本的上升。
Based on the environment background of China’s path-wise OFDI and reverse OFDI, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the "hollowing out" of manufacturing industry by China's bidirectional gradient outward foreign direct investment, and then, by modifying the classic “structural growth” model, this paper an empirical test using the panel data of 11 provinces and cities of eastern China from 2003 to 2014 .The empirical results show that: (1) Foreign direct investment can indeed lead to “howllowing out” of manufacturing industry; (2) The rise of industrial production costs, the fluctuation of asset prices and the increase in labor costs have exacerbated the "hollow" effect of the manufacturing industry of foreign direct investment at different levels； (3) To some extent, foreign direct investment can positively adjust the “hollowing out” of manufaturing industry caused by outward foreign direct investment; (4) Outward foreign direct investment is not the main factor of "hollowing out" of China's manufacturing industry. The rising of industrial production cost is still the main obstacle to the development of China's manufacturing industry, followed by the change of asset price, the increase of foreign direct investment and labor cost.