人口城镇化对中国粮食消费的影响测度
Measurement of the Impact of Urbanization on China's Grain Consumption

构建系统动力学模型，测度人口城镇化对我国粮食消费产生的影响。结果表明：人口城镇化有利于减少直接用粮，但提高了间接用粮，总体上增加了粮食消费；直接用粮的未来自给形势较为乐观，而间接用粮缺口将会长期存在。为此，应推进农业供给侧结构性改革，完善粮食节约机制，合理利用国际粮食市场，以应对人口城镇化所带来的粮食消费影响。
Based on the model of System Dynamics, this paper attempts to measure the effect of grain consumption caused by urbanization, and the results show that the population urbanization will help to reduce direct grain consumption while indirect grain consumption will increase, so it will improve the total grain consumption. In the future, China's self-sufficiency in direct grain consumption is optimistic, whereas the shortage in satisfying indirect grain consumption will exist for a long time. Therefore, China should promote supply-side structural reform in agriculture; improve the mechanism of grain conservation, and rational use of international grain markets so as to deal with the impact of population urbanization on grain consumption.