基于LPPL模型的股市泡沫研究——兼论主权债务危机时国际援助计划效果
Research on Stock Market Bubble based on LPPL Model: Evaluation of the Greece Programme during the Sovereign Debt Crisis

运用LPPL模型对主权债务危机时期希腊股市泡沫状态进行判断，考量各轮援助计划的实施效果。结果表明：在第一轮援助期内，股市处于负泡沫状态；而在第二轮援助期与第三轮援助期内，股市局部处于反转负泡沫状态，但整体依旧处于负泡沫状态。国际援助计划虽然有所助益，但没有从根本上有效改善其市场低迷状态。为避免发生此类危机，应促进实体经济健康发展，密切关注政府债务问题，注重货币政策与财政政策相协调。
This paper applies LPPL model to analyze the bubble state of Greek stock market, and then evaluates each Greece programmes. The empirical results show that there are anti-bubbles in the Greek stock market during the first round of aid. During the second and third round of aids, there are reverse anti-bubbles in the Greek stock market partly, but there are anti-bubbles on the whole. The empirical results suggest that these aids has indeed helped, but has not fundamentally improved Greek economic downturn means. In order to avoid such crisis, it is necessary to promote the healthy development of the real economy, pay close attention to the government debt issue, and focus on the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy.