制度和政策不确定性下的创新决策与经济增长过程
Innovation Decision and Economic Growth under Uncertainty about Institutions and Policies

构建“2+1”部门内生创新模型，考量政策的连续性和制度的稳定性对经济增长产生影响。结果表明：由于创新活动具有极大的风险性质，初期需要巨大投入，而回报分散在漫长的未来时间，因而未来面临的各种制度和政策变化都会影响到创新成果的现值，从而不利于鼓励研发部门将资源投入创新活动。更重要的是，由于政府部门需要实现多重政策目标，这意味着鼓励创新的目标可能受到牵制，从而增加了创新活动未来收益的不确定性。因此，要促进创新活动，必须为研发部门提供一个可以稳定预期的未来制度与政策环境。
This paper builds an endogenous innovation model with 2 plus 1 sectors to analyze how the stability and continuity of institutions influence firm's innovation decision and hence economic growth. Based on the facts that innovation is highly risky, needs huge amount of first-run investment, and will be compensated gradually and slowly in the future, the model obtains the result that unexpected change in institutions and policies reduces the present value of innovation, which discourages R&D departments from allocating financial resources into innovating. More importantly, government has multiple policy goals so that its goal of promoting innovation may not be priority or may simply be restrained, which increases the uncertainty about future return to innovation. Therefore, in order to encourage firms to make more efforts on innovation, a stable and expectable institution and policy environment is essential.