Correlation for Predicting Water Breakthrough Time in Thin Oil Rim Reservoirs in the Niger Delta

In the Niger Delta, available correlations to predict water breakthrough time in thin oil rim reservoirs are based on generic reservoir models and/or experimental design approach. This approach had not considered the heterogeneity of the reservoir. Thus, the prediction of these available correlations for thin oil rim reservoirs in the Niger Delta is in doubt, considering the sensitive nature of developing thin oil rim reservoirs. Then, a correlation for water breakthrough time (tbt) was developed based on integrated reservoir model of thin oil rim reservoir in the Niger Delta. The obtained result indicated that the developed correlation predicted 1652.72 days compared to the actual Oilfield breakthrough time of 1653 days (about 4.53 years). Also, sensitivity study showed that the developed correlation and the integrated reservoir model predictions of oil production rate (qo), fractional well penetration (hp/h) and height above perforation-oil column (hap/h) on the water breakthrough time (tbt) were close and resulted in coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9697, 0.8597 and 0.9553, respectively. Furthermore, the results depicted that water coning breakthrough time (tbt) depends directly on oil production rate (q) and well completion parameters: fractional well penetration (hp/h) and height above perforation (hap). Hence, to delay early water breakthrough in thin oil rim reservoirs, these completion parameters are consideration in vertical wells to achieve optimum oil recovery. Also, the developed correlation can be used as a quick and robust tool to predict water breakthrough time of thin oil rim reservoirs in the Niger Delta