CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS OVER TAMIL NADU IN 2021-2030

Global climate model uses dynamical downscaling technique for projecting large-scale atmospheric process at local boundary condition. RegCM 4.4 is effectively used for downscaling the MIROC5 global climate model output, used for simulations and projecting the climate for Tamil Nadu under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. On the basis of the MIROC5 model scenarios, the maximum temperature, minimum temperatures and rainfall are projected. The increase in maximum temperature is projected to be 1.0°C for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively during 2021to 2030. The minimum temperature is expected to increase about 1.1°C for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. Rainfall deviation would be 4.2 percent and 6.6 percent for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from base period