Predicting no return to sports after three months in patients with traumatic knee complaints in general practice by combining patient characteristics, trauma characteristics and knee complaints

Abstract Background: It remains unclear to what extent patients with traumatic knee complaints aged 18–45 years seen in general practice experience difficulties with return to sports. Objectives: This study aims to determine the proportion of patients with a knee trauma that return to sports at six weeks and three months follow-up. Also examined were associations between no return to sports and baseline patient/trauma characteristics, knee complaints and MR (magnetic resonance) findings, as well as the additive value of MR findings. Methods: Included were patients with traumatic knee complaints participating in a randomized controlled trial assessing the cost-effectiveness of an MR scan in general practice. Patients were classified as ‘no return to sports’ or ‘return to sports’ (sports on pre-injury or adapted level). Potential baseline predictors for no return to sports were assessed using logistic regression analyses. The area under the curves (AUC) was compared. Results: At six weeks and three months follow-up, 147 (59%) and 175 (74%) patients, respectively, reported return to sports. Combining patient characteristics, trauma characteristics and knee complaints predicted no return to sports with an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.81–0.90) at six weeks and of 0.82 (95%CI: 0.76–0.88) at three months follow-up. After adding MR findings, the AUC was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.71–0.87) at six weeks and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.70–0.88) at three months follow-up. Conclusion: Three out of four patients with a knee trauma in general practice reported return to sports at three months follow-up. A combination of patient/trauma characteristics and knee complaints predicted no return to sports, whereas MR findings had no additive value. ？ Trial registration: Dutch trial registration: registration number: NTR3689. registration date: 7 November 2012