Quantifying resistance and resilience to local extinction for conservation prioritization

Species‐focused conservation planning is often based on reducing local extinction risk at key sites. However, with increasing levels of habitat fragmentation and pressures from climate change and overexploitation, surrounding landscapes also influence the persistence of species populations, and their effects are increasingly incorporated in conservation planning and management for both species and communities. Here, we present a framework based on metapopulation dynamics in fragmented landscapes, for quantifying the survival (resistance) and reestablishment of species populations following localized extinction events (resilience). We explore the application of this framework to guide the conservation of a group of threatened bird species endemic to papyrus (Cyperus papyrus) swamps in East and Central Africa. Using occupancy data for five species collected over two years from a network of wetlands in Uganda, we determine the local and landscape factors that influence local extinction and colonization, and map expected rates of population turnover across the network to draw inferences about the locations that contribute most to regional resistance and resilience for all species combined. Slight variation in the factors driving extinction and colonization between individual papyrus birds led to species‐specific differences in the spatial patterns of site‐level resistance and resilience. However, despite this, locations with the highest resistance and/or resilience overlapped for most species and reveal where resources could be invested for multispecies persistence. This novel simplified framework can aid decision making associated with conservation planning and prioritization for multiple species residing in overlapping, fragmented habitats; helping to identify key sites that warrant urgent conservation protection, with consideration of the need to adapt and respond to future change. Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate (Newbold et al. 2015), yet the resources available to counteract this loss are finite and insufficient to ensure that ambitious global biodiversity targets are met (McCarthy et al. 2012). Establishing protected areas, defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as geographic locations that are “designated or regulated and managed to achieve specific conservation objectives,” is one of the main approaches for the safeguarding of biodiversity. The importance of these sites is recognized globally, with signatories to the CBD aiming to safeguard 17% of terrestrial land and inland water by 2020 as part of the