人口老龄化、延迟退休与养老金财政负担
Aging Population, Delayed Retirement and Pension Financial Burden

本文在“统账结合”制度下,通过建立一个拓展的世代交叠一般均衡模型,分析了人口老龄化和延迟退休对养老金财政负担的影响,同时运用数值模拟讨论了这种影响的程度以及理论结论的稳健性问题。研究结果表明,预期寿命延长对养老金财政负担的影响取决于行为人增加储蓄引致的养老金收入增加效应和领取养老金年数延长引致的养老金支出增加效应的强弱。当资本产出弹性较小时,预期寿命延长的养老金支出增加效应大于养老金收入增加效应,养老金财政负担随预期寿命延长而加重; 反之,当资本产出弹性较大时,养老金财政负担随预期寿命延长而减轻。延迟退休对养老金财政负担的影响取决于行为人减少储蓄引致的养老金收入减少效应和领取养老金年数缩短引致的养老金支出减少效应的强弱,当延迟退休年龄较小时,延迟退休年龄的养老金支出减少效应大于养老金收入减少效应,延迟退休可以减轻养老金财政负担。数值模拟表明,在资本产出弹性为0.4时,预期寿命增加1岁所带来的养老金财政负担可以通过延迟退休0.67年来缓解。
Under the system of combining unified pension account with individual account, this paper analyzes the influence of population aging and delayed retirement on pension financial burden by establishing an extended generational overlapping general equilibrium model.At the same time, the degree of this influence and the robustness of the theoretical conclusion are discussed by numerical simulation.The results show that the effect of life expectancy extension on the burden of pension expenditure depends on the increase effect of pension income caused by the increase of savings by the perpetrator and the increase effect of pension expenditure caused by the extension of pension years.When the elasticity of capital output is small, the effect of increasing pension life expectancy is greater than that of pension income, and the burden of pension expenditure is aggravated with the extension of life expectancy.Conversely, when the elasticity of capital output is large, the burden of pension expenditure is reduced as life expectancy increases.The effect of delayed retirement on the burden of pension expenditure depends on the reduction effect of pension income caused by the reduction of the behavior of the perpetrator and the reduction effect of the pension expenditure caused by the shortening of the pension years.When the later retirement age is lower.The effect of reducing pension expenditure is greater than the effect of reducing pension income, and delaying retirement can reduce the burden of pension expenditure.Numerical simulations show that when the capital output elasticity is 0.4, the burden of pension expenditure caused by the increase in life expectancy of one year can be alleviated by delaying retirement by 0.67 years