性别偏好对家庭二孩生育计划的影响——夫妻视角下的一项实证研究
Impact of Couple's Sex Preference on Family's Second-child Intentions

摘要 文章基于2016年全国抽样调查数据，分析性别偏好对家庭二孩生育计划的影响，重点探讨夫妻性别偏好一致性及类型对家庭二孩生育计划类型和二孩性别期望的影响。结果发现：夫妻在性别偏好上一致的比例（59%）略高于不一致的比例（41%）；儿女双全偏好是主要的偏好类型，其次是无偏好，纯男或纯女孩偏好的比例相对较低。性别偏好一致的夫妻更可能在二孩生育计划上达成一致的意见，也更可能对二孩性别表现出一致的期望。夫妻性别偏好不一致不一定会降低家庭生育二孩的可能性，因为即使偏好不一致，夫妻中任意一方存在性别偏好都会显著提高家庭有二孩生育计划的可能性。一致有二孩生育计划的夫妻中，对二孩性别的期望与丈夫的而非妻子的性别偏好更吻合。
Abstract：Using 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces in mainland China，this study empirically investigates how sex preferences impact couple's intentions for a second child. Specifically, we discuss how the agreement on sex preferences between the husband and wife is related to their intentions for a second child and desire for the sex of second birth. The results suggest that about 59% of the couples have same sex preference, in which the preference for having both a son and a daughter (“Er Nv Shuang Quan”) is the dominant type and no preference is the secondary, while the proportion of only son or daughter preference is low. Couples who have the same sex preference are more likely to reach an agreement about having a second child or not, and they also show the same desire for the sex of second child. Husbands and wives with different sex preferences do not show lower second-child intentions. This is because the sex preference of either husband or wife will lead to higher intentions for a second child. Additionally, for couples who have intentions for a second child, the sex preference of husband rather than wife is more likely to be the same with the desire for the sex of second child