流动与女性生育间隔的关系
Migration and Women's Birth Interval:An Empirical Study Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

摘要 文章利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，使用生存分析方法，研究女性流动与生育间隔的关系。以女性的流动时间和婚育时间构建女性婚育历程，探究不同的流动时点选择对初婚初育间隔和一二孩生育间隔的影响。结果显示，流动会延长初婚初育间隔和一二孩生育间隔。但是，进一步考虑流动时间后发现，流动的影响具有异质性。生育受到流动影响最大的是初婚初育间隔和一二孩生育间隔内发生过流动的女性，间隔内流动对生育间隔有直接的延长作用。但是，对于非间隔内流动的女性，流动不会推迟生育。初婚前流动和初育后流动的女性其初婚初育间隔反而小于户籍人口，二孩生育后才流动的女性其一二孩生育间隔也小于户籍人口。
Abstract：This study investigates the association between migration and birth intervals by utilizing data from 2017 China Fertility Survey. By constructing women's life course based on their migration, first marriage and birth date, we explore how different types of migration are associated with women's marriage-first-birth interval and first-second-birth interval using the method of survival analysis. The findings are summarized as following: (1) Migration has a postpone effect on childbearing; (2) However, the effects of migration vary by migrating time. Compared to non-migrants, women who experienced migrating event between marriage and first birth, or between first and second birth significantly prolonged their marriage-first-birth interval and first-second-birth interval respectively. But women who didnt migrate between first marriage and first birth or between first and second birth had shortened intervals compared to non-migrants