中国高龄老人失能发展轨迹及死亡轨迹
Disability and Mortality Trajectories of the Chinese Oldest？old

摘要 文章采用1998～2014年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查的7次数据，基于组基轨迹模型，同时探索了高龄老人的日常生活自理能力失能发展轨迹和死亡轨迹，并从人口学特征、社会经济情况、儿童期特征3个角度对失能轨迹类型归属进行解释。分析结果表明，高龄老人的失能发展轨迹存在异质性，男性分为“低起点缓慢发展型”“低起点快速发展型”和“高起点缓慢发展型”3种，女性分为“低起点缓慢发展型”“低起点快速发展型”和“高起点快速发展型”3种。女性属于“低起点缓慢发展型”的比例低于男性。不同类型的失能轨迹和死亡轨迹的高低分层排序一致，女性的死亡率大多低于相对应类型的男性。高龄老人的居住地和职业类型对失能轨迹类型归属有影响。
Abstract： Based on seven-wave data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014, this article applies group-based trajectory models to jointly estimate disability and mortality trajectories among the Chinese oldest-olds and to explore factors related to the particular disability trajectories. Heterogeneous disability trajectories have been shown for the oldest-olds by gender. Men can be categorized into three groups of trajectories, including “trajectory with a low start and slow growth”, “trajectory with a low start and rapid growth” and “trajectory with a high start and slow growth”. Women are also categorized into three groups of trajectories, including “trajectory with a low start and slow growth”, “trajectory with a low start and rapid growth” and “trajectory with a high start and rapid growth”. For women, the proportion of those belonging to the “trajectory of a low start and slow growth” is lower than that of men. For both men and women, the mortality trajectories follow a hierarchy in consistence with disability trajectories. Compared to men belonging to the same group of trajectory, women show lower mortality. Residence and occupations are associated with the oldest-old’s disability trajectory