多国人口老龄化路径同原点比较及其经济社会影响
Identical Origin Point Ageing Path and Socio？Economic Impacts: A Multiple？Country #br# Comparison

摘要 文章构建同原点比较模型，跨时间比较中国、法国、日本等9个国家自暴露于老龄化社会“风险”后的老龄化发展路径，并考察各国在老龄化社会“风险”存续期内老龄化的深化对其经济社会发展的影响。研究表明：各国老龄化发展或急或缓，都在持续加深；近10年中国老龄化发展速度已经快于日本；中日韩劳动年龄人口老化将在2035年左右达到顶峰并维持45%左右的高水平至21世纪末；在控制了经济发展水平的情况下，老龄化并不必然导致一国人均医疗卫生支出的增加，但多数国家高龄老人占比与人均医疗卫生支出呈显著正相关，呈现出“接近死亡效应”；人均储蓄受老龄化的影响未呈现一致规律；多数国家男性劳动参与率随老龄化水平上升而下降，但部分国家的老龄化显著促进了女性劳动参与率的提升。
Abstract： Through constructing identical origin point model, this article compares the ageing process of 9 countries since their exposure to the risk of being an ageing society and examines its social and economic impact among these countries. The study finds that whether fast or slow, population ageing keeps intensifying among selected countries. Over the past decade, Chinas ageing rate has been faster than that of Japan. The ageing of labor force in China, Japan, and Korea is predicted to reach a peak as high as 45% by 2035 and to remain this level for the rest of this century. After controlling the economic growth level, it turns out that population ageing does not necessarily increase health expenditures. Instead, the proportion of the elderly population aged 80 and above shows a significant positive correlation with the health expenditures in most countries. Impact of population ageing on the saving per capita shows no consistent patterns. In most countries, the male labor participation rate drops as the ageing level ascends. However, some countries may also witness a climb in female labor participation rate due to the effect of population ageing