人口老龄化对居民家庭投资风险偏好的影响
The Influence of Population Ageing on Investment Risk Preference：An Old-Age Security Perspective

摘要 人口老龄化下退休者对退休金和子女的依赖度下降，工作期间的资产积累和资产回报对未来养老安全的重要性提升。不同风险的投资产品具有不同的回报率，居民投资风险偏好将直接决定居民投资行为偏好和投资产品组合需求，进而影响资产回报。文章利用2011年中国家庭金融资产调查数据，采用有序Logistic回归模型实证分析了年龄对居民风险偏好的影响。研究结果表明，处于不同生命周期的人群投资风险偏好不同。年龄与居民风险偏好呈现单调关系，随着居民年龄的增长其风险偏好程度逐渐下降。人口老龄化将降低居民总体投资风险偏好度，从而影响未来投资市场的供给和需求特征，最终降低资本市场的回报率。最后，文章对我国的养老安全提出了政策建议。
Abstract：With population aging, there is a decline of retirees' dependence on pension and their children, while the accumulation of assets and the return of assets during the work period become more important for their future pension security. Investment products at different risks have various capital return rates. Residents' investment risk preference will directly decide residents’ investment behavior preferences and portfolio demand, and therefore affect the returns of asset in the future. Using the survey data of 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey, this paper empirically analyses the influence of age on the risk preference of residents by establishing a series of ordered logistic regression models. The results show that the investment risk preference during different life cycles is different, and the risk preference of the residents gradually decreases with age. Population ageing will reduce the overall investment risk preference and develop a low return rate through adjusting the supply and demand of the future investment market. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications