农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性评估——基于安徽农村地区的实证研究
The Vulnerability Assessment of Family Support for the Elderly in Rural China: An Empirical Study Based on Data from Anhui

摘要 文章采用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2015年“安徽省老年人福利状况”调查数据，基于IPCC“暴露-敏感性-适应能力”分析框架和综合指数评估模型，构建农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性评价指标体系及评估模型，分别从农村老年人家庭暴露水平、敏感性和适应能力出发，探讨不同农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性指数及其维度的差异。研究结果发现，农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性保持在较高水平，高、中等养老脆弱性家庭所占比例为51.81%。高养老脆弱性农村老年人家庭具有高龄、低教育水平、低生活自理能力、低收入的特征，而中等脆弱性农村老年人家庭的各项特征均与高脆弱性家庭相差甚微，并且丧偶、子女中只有女儿或不与子女、孙子女同住的农村老年人家庭暴露水平与敏感性较高。
Abstract：This paper uses data from the survey of “Wellbeing of Elderly in Anhui Province, China” conducted by the Institute for Population and Development of Xi'an Jiaotong University. Based on the “exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity” analysis framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a comprehensive index assessment model, the study builds an assessment index system and an assessment model for the vulnerability of rural elderly family, which are based on the exposure level, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of elderly rural family. The Vulnerability Index is used to measure the vulnerability of rural elderly family, and the types of vulnerability indexes and their dimensional differences are discussed. The results show that the vulnerability of old-age support systems of rural elderly family maintained a high level; 51.81% of respondents are belonged to high-and mediumlevel vulnerable families. Rural elderly living in the high-level vulnerable families have the characteristics of seniority, low education level, low ability of ADLs, and low family income. The characteristics of mediumlevel vulnerable rural elderly families are similar to those of highlevel vulnerable families. The levels of exposure and sensitivity of rural elderly families with widowed elders, having daughters only or do not live with children and grandchildren are high