The Persistent Black

This paper leverages four decades of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to document Black-White gaps in the translation of mobility expectations into actual mobility, track those racial gaps over time in the context of declining mobility among all Americans, and identify a substantial weakening in the ability of both Black and White householders to move when they expect to. Results show a substantial racial gap in the realization of mobility expectations with foundations in the relative inability of Black householders to leverage socioeconomic resources in segmented housing markets. There is no indication of significant improvement or growth in this gap over time. While householders’ expressed expectations are the best predictor of future mobility, this predictive relationship has weakened significantly since 1970, primarily because of a decline in mobility among expectant householders. Trends in the expectation of mobility offer support for the notion that declining mobility is indicative of voluntary “rootedness” among Whites but also suggest that a substantial share of Americans (and Blacks in particular) are increasingly likely to be “stuck” expecting to move but unable to do so