Recounting the Dead: An Analysis of ISAF Caused Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

In wars fought against insurgents, civilian casualties present the challenging dilemma of balancing security and stability while targeting insurgents who operate within the civilian population. In Afghanistan, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has made minimizing civilian casualties a top-tier strategic issue. Yet beyond annual reports, there has been a lack of data-driven analysis into the number of civilians killed by ISAF operations. This research investigates ISAF-caused civilian casualties between 2010 and 2013, incorporating civilian casualty events to investigate changes in ISAF “lethality.” This analysis finds that although ISAF-caused civilian casualties decreased overall, this was mitigated by the tactic employed (airpower vs. on the ground operations). The implications of this analysis for theories of military adaptation, future population-centric operations, and current military operations (e.g., in Iraq and Syria) are discussed