The conundrum of a dominant party in Thailand

Although Thaksin Shinawatra’s three political parties, together called “the TSP” in this article, overwhelmingly won all four elections between 2001 and 2011, explaining their dominance is a challenge. Nevertheless, this article attempts to shed some light on how the TSP politicized already latent cleavages, namely the basic split between the lower-middle class and the rural poor versus mostly Sino-Thai Bangkokians and the urban middle class, and made them even more significant. After the TSP was dissolved by court order following the 2006 military coup, these deep divides transformed into two major cleavages, namely the dominating center-local dimension which pits Bangkokian and the urban pole against the provincial pole and the royalist and traditional establishment pole against pro-populist politicians. The TSP’s ability to incorporate certain demands into its agendas pointed to its power to manipulate these cleavages. At the same time, its capacity to organize and mobilize certain groups deepened those divisions and allowed the party to win elections without having to institutionalize the party. The TSP’s failure to develop a strong organizational structure was partly a result of frequent coups d’etat as well as its centralized style of leadership. The TSP’s reach across groups spanning these two cleavages would allow the TSP to win the upcoming election without having to embrace the dynamics of change in voters’ preferences. However, the precariously balanced relationship between the TSP and its supporters has to be carefully maintained, or the existing social cleavages may be increasingly difficult to sustain if new political parties emerge