Human population growth and land-use changes raise demand
and competition for water resources. The Upper OumErRabia River Basin is
experiencing high rangeland and matorral conversion to irrigated agricultural
land expansion. Given Morocco’s per capita water availability, River-basin
hydrologic modelling could potentially
bring together agricultural, water resources and conservation objectives. However, not everywhere have hydrological models
considered events and continuous assessment of climatic data. In this study,
HEC-HMS modelling approach is used to explore
the event-based and continuous-process simulation of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) impact on water
balance. The use of HEC-GeoHMS facilitated the digital data processing for
coupling with the model. The basin’s physical characteristics and the
hydro-climatic data helped to generate a geospatial database for HEC-HMS model. We analyzed baseline and future
scenario changes for the 1980-2016 period using the SCS Curve-Number and the
Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) loss methods. SMA was coupled with the
Hargreaves evapotranspiration method. Model calibration focused on reproducing
observed basin runoff hydrograph. To evaluate the model performance for both
calibration and validation, the Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe
efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RSR) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) criteria were exploited. The average calibration NSE
values were0.740
and 0.585 for event-based (daily) and continuous-process (annual) respectively.
The R2, RSR and
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