FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

Sa？etak Purpose. There are sufficient evidences in the literature that welfare of food producers and consumers is easily compromised due to unfavorable food price volatility dynamics. Therefore, this study investigates the volatility dynamics in food price index returns (FPIRETURNS), imported food price index returns (CIFCPIRETURNS), price of dollars at bureau de change (BDCRETURNS) and inter-bank rate (EXRETURNS). Design/Methodology/Approach. In view of the increasing quest to account for volatility behavior such as non-linear and time-varying risk premium in food price series using an appropriate tool, this paper adopts exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. This is because it allows error terms to be conditional heteroscedastic, and the dynamics process generating the underlying heteroscedasticity to be asymmetric. That is, the model introduces a parameter that can reveal how conditional variance respond to both positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude (asymmetric effect). Findings and Implications. The study finds leverage effect and high persistence in some of the selected models. Also, exchange rate volatility affects volatility of FPIRETURNS, but it is more pronounced on the volatility of CIFCPIRETURNS. Limitations. Inadequate data especially for CIFCPIRETURNS is a huge limitation in this study. Originality. However, this study has sufficient empirical evidences that instability in forex market flows into the Nigerian food market with pronounced leverage effect and persistence in food price volatility. The recommendation is, government should implement stabilization policy in the forex market as a precursor to ensuring stability in domestic food market