BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF THE CEREAL AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN CHINA: FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE COST

Sa？etak The balanced supply and demand of the cereal is essential for achieving economic sustainable development in China. The wheat and products, the rice (including the milled equivalent), and the maize and products are three main cereals in China, the three cereals but the rice (including the milled equivalent) in China were enerally seriously comparatively insufficient before 1997, and then became fully sufficient. The co-integrative test demonstrated that there existed long-term equilibrium between balance of supply and demand and influencing factors, and the correcting coefficient was about 2.2 percent. As for balance degree of supply and demand, increase of machinery cost, daily-average labor price and indirect cost would improve it, increase of fertilizer expenditure and labor-input quantity would deteriorate it at short-term. The Granger causality test implied that balance of supply and demand owned interactive effect with laborer-input quantity, but not with the other cost. The highlight of this article was evaluating hypothesis of “Who will feed China” and influencing factors from perspective of the cost, achieving that the above hypothesis was not a real problem in China