PROJECTED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TREE FORMATION OF KAZDA？I (MT. IDA) AND ITS VICINITY

The aim of this study is to determine the reflection of the climate change to the forest of the Kaz Mount and its vicinity via regional climate scenarios. It is used temperature and precipitation data. It is derived the modeled temperature and precipitation values in the points of the surface of Kaz Mount from arranged data after reducing them to the sea level in GIS. Spatial analysis has been applied using Erin？, De-Martonne and Emberger indexes and gained the changing climate maps of Kaz Mount according to the three climate classification methods. On the other hand, trees which forms the forest of Kaz Mount have been classified according to their xerophilous or hygrophilous types. Thus, it is gained 5 groups of tree species, hygrophilous, xerophilous, transition which includes hygrophilous dominant and also xerophilous but less relatively, and pure and mixed oak for which has many of types and absent in forest management plans. Finaly, climatical movements in the tree formation areas are determined analyzing both climate maps and the areas of formation groups. According to findings, Arid and semi-arid climate areas expand; semi-humid, humid/low rainy, rainy climate areas shrink dramatically in all climate classifications. Results in the RCP 8.5 are similar but more apparent