THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION USED IN INDUSTRY AND FOREIGN TRADE BALANCE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK TESTS

The basic macroeconomic problem of the developing countries is foreign trade balance. In these countries, the main determinant of foreign trade balance is energy imports. In developing countries, the largest foreign trade firms are in the manufacturing sector. The main energy source in the manufacturing sector is electrical energy. Electric energy is used mainly in residential, commercial and public offices, industry, lighting and other sectors when the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) data are examined. Among these areas, electricity used in industry is at the forefront with the highest usage amount. In this study, the relationship between electricity consumption and foreign trade balance between the years 1970-2015 in Turkey is analyzed by structural break tests. According to the results of Hatemi-J Cointegration Test, a longterm interaction between electricity consumption used in industry and foreign trade balance is detected while in the Hacker-Hatemi J Bootsrap Causality analysis, no bi-directional causality relation is found between variables