THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE REFUGEE CRISIS FOR TURKISH-GERMAN RELATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRITICAL EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE BILATERAL DIALOGUE

This article analyses the implications of the refugee crisis for the scope and key features of the relationship between Turkey and Germany and defines the critical ebbs and flows that Turkish-German bilateral dialogue has experienced during the crisis era. In doing so, it also evaluates the challenges and opportunities that have emerged for both parties from efforts for enhanced collaboration on finding a common solution to migrants’ entering into the EU irregularly. The article first provides an overview of the evolution of the refugee crisis, its transformation into a crisis of the EU and the roles played by Turkey and Germany in its evolution and prospective management. It then evaluates in three successive eras the changes and continuities in the Turkish-German dialogue: a) Contemporary Turkish-German dialogue until the emergence of a “European” refugee crisis; b) Bilateral relations throughout the crisis ahead of the announcement of the “EU-Turkey Statement”, widely known as the EU-Turkey “refugee deal”; and c) Turkish-German relations after the initiation of the deal. In the final part some concluding remarks are made concerning the future of Turkish-German relations and the future of the EU-Turkey “deal” by taking into account the findings of the previous parts of this article