Capability of TEC correlation Analysis and Deceleration at Propagation Velocities of Medium-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances: Preseismic Anomalies before the Large Earthquakes
Data analysis method (CRA, hereafter) to correlate
multiple TEC anomaly signals has detected pre-seismic anomalies before the 2011
Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Iwata & Umeno 2016), the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake
(Iwata & Umeno 2017) and the 2016 Tainan earthquake (Goto et al. 2019). However, a critical argument
said that those anomalies detected by CRA would not be pre-seismic anomalies published by Journal of Geophysical Research-Space
Physics (126), 2021 (JGR-SP (126), hereafter). In this paper, we would point
out its incorrect use of statistical anomalies in evaluating CRA as the
following points: CRA is shown to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to
amplify pre-seismic TEC’s small anomaly signals with synchronizing and
correlating multiple GNSS receivers’ data. We proved again that pre-seismic anomalies
certainly exist before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto
earthquake with additional data analysis. In particular, as a temporal anomaly, deceleration at propagation
velocities of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTID,
hereafter) before the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake captured by CRA (Iwata & Umeno
2017) is elucidated as pre-seismic anomalies. Furthermore, we proposed a
physical model to predict that 35 m/s change at MSTID propagation velocities
estimated by TEC’s CRA requires 0.58×10-3 V/m electric field in the F Layer ionosphere. Contrary to the claim with
the incorrect use of statistical anomalies in JGR-SP (126), TEC’s correlation
anomalies detected by CRA (Iwata & Umeno 2016 and Iwata & Umeno 2017)
clearly provided supporting evidence that physical pre-seismic anomalies really
exist.
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