The research aim of this paper is to investigate whether futures price
fluctuations of major commodities during the Russian-Ukrainian war had an
increased impact on the volatility of European stock index prices and whether
they better explained stock index price fluctuations compared to pre-war
commodity price fluctuations. Based on the results based on empirical research
data, we tried to further discuss the correlation between strategic commodities
of political significance and other global financial asset prices during
special periods such as war. As main research method, regression analysis was
used to explore whether the price fluctuation of Russia’s main export
commodities (natural gas and wheat) better explained Europe’s stock market
fluctuation (represented by FTSE) during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
compared to the pre-war period. We compare the correlation between the European
stock index and each of the two commodities during the war and before the war. The
correlation is examined by investigating whether the changes in the indicators
representing the increase in explanatory power are statistically significant.
Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used as a more robust version to
explain the change.
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