Failure Prediction and Intelligent Maintenance of a Transportation Company’s Urban Fleet

The present work deals with intelligent vehicle fleet maintenance and prediction. We propose an approach based primarily on the history of failures data and on the geographical data system. The objective here is to predict the date of failures for a fleet of vehicles in order to allow the maintenance department to efficiently deploy the proper resources; we further provide specific details regarding the origins of failures, and finally, give recommendations. This study used the Société de transport de Montréal (STM)’s historical bus failure data as well as weather data from Environment Canada. We thank Facebook’s Prophet, Simple Feed-forward, and Beats algorithms (Uber), we proposed a set of computer codes that allow us to identify the 20% of buses that are responsible for the 80% of failures by mean of the failure history. Then, we deepened our study on the unreliable equipments identified during the diffusion of our computer code This allowed us to propose probable predictions of the dates of future failures. To ensure the validity of the proposed algorithm, we carried out simulations with more than 250,000 data. The results obtained are similar to the predicted theoretical values.