A Novel Approach for Optimum Conjunctive Use Management of Groundwater and Surface Water Resources under Uncertainty

Uncertainty in determining optimum conjunctive water use lies not only on variability of hydrological cycle and climate but also on lack of adequate data and perfect knowledge about groundwater-surface water system interactions, errors in historic data and inherent variability of system parameters both in space and time. Simulation-optimization models are used for conjunctive water use management under uncertain conditions. However, direct application of such approach whereby all realizations are considered at every-iteration of the optimization process leads to a highly computational time-consuming optimization problem as the number of realizations increases. Hence, this study proposes a novel approach—a Retrospective Optimization Approximation (ROA) approach. In this approach, a simulation model was used to determine aquifer system responses (draw-downs) which were assembled as response matrices and incorporated in the optimization model (procedure) as coefficients in the constraints. The sample optimization sub-problems generated, were solved and analyzed through ROA-Active-Set procedure implemented under MATLAB code. The ROA-Active Set procedure solves and evaluates a sequence of sample path optimization sub-problems in an increasing number of realizations. The methodology was applied to a real-world conjunctive water use management problem found in Great Letaba River basin, South Africa. In the River basin, surface water source contributes 87% of the existing un-optimized total conjunctive water use withdrawal rate (6512.04 m³/day) and the remaining 13% is contributed by groundwater source. Through ROA approach, results indicate that the optimum percentages contribution of the surface and subsurface sources to the total water demand are 58% and 42% respectively. This implies that the existing percentage contribution can be increased or reduced by ±29% that is groundwater source can be increased by 29% while the surface water source contribution can be reduced by 29%. This reveals that the existing conjunctive water use practice is unsustainable wherein surface water system is overstressed while groundwater system is under-utilized. Through k-means sampling technique ROA-Active Set procedure was able to attain a converged maximum expected total optimum conjunctive water use withdrawal rate of 4.35 × 10⁴ m³/day within a relatively few numbers of iterations (6 to 8 iterations) in about 2.30 Hrs. In conclusion, results demonstrated that