In the
Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa
in particular, climate models turn out to be
unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This
study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic
risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the
main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the
variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a
statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal
variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed
as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability
distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy
season was clarified.
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